There’s a very interesting article in today’s LA Times (by one of my favorite writers who is still at the Times, Robin Abcarian) about why John McCain picked Sarah Palin. It appears that, just like Hillary Clinton did late in the primaries, he has decided that “Experience” is not the right way to focus the campaign. The public cares less about foreign policy experience — they just want to throw the bastards out (and that’s not just the Republican administration–they are dissatisfied with Congress as well). Hence the McCain campaign appears to shifting their focus to a Reform theme … and here Palin adds to their strengths by being a Washington outsider, who has achieved reforms in her state of Alaska. That’s something neither Obama nor Biden can claim.
So how could the Obama campaign counter this claim. I think by reminding people of history. There have been many times that we have presidents with no Washington experience, wanting to shake up what’s been going wrong. Two examples of where that went wrong were Carter and Bush Jr. An example of where that went right was Reagan. Further, Palin, the one with no Washington experience, is in the VP slot, meaning she can introduce ideas but not have to actually lead on Day 1. Obama might also point out that Palin relied on the earmark system she now opposes.
Personally, I still think Obama is the better choice of the two, primarily because I like the ideas I have heard and I agree more with his social agenda. But this is going to be another close one, because America as a whole still harkens to the puritical background… and thus the social conservatives still seem to have quite a large voice. The scary part is: given the size of the country, this campaign may come down to the media — which is neither unbiased nor “fair and balanced” — on either side. The Presidential Debates and the VP Debate will likely have more of an affect on shaping opinions than any convention will. As for advertising… again the media plays the role, for what makes ads effective is not the running of the ad itself, but the media picking up on the ad and making it the story. That’s what Swift Boated John Kerry — the media attention to the ad.
And so this week the Political Hurricane begins. Right now it’s only a Tropical Depression, but it will be Cat 5 come November. I’m not going to be uber-confident in the outcome: this is one storm where we must study the currents and the flows and make the right decison, lest we be dashed upon the rocks.
