Although the major networks are divided on their vote calls (Fox and NBC have Bush at 269 vs Kerry at 231, whereas CNN/AP are 254/253), it seems likely that President Bush will be reelected. After the obligatory “damn”, some observations.
Damn.
But we are a democracy, and in a democracy, sometimes your candidate loses. That’s life. It’s still a much better system that is in place in much of the rest of the world. I have no plans to move. But what does this election show us.
First, we are clearly a country divided. The last two elections have shown this in their closeness, but even more so, in how the vote has been distributed. Although the Electoral College is close, there is a significant divide between the urban centers and the rural heartland. There’s a divide between the South and Plains vs. the Coast and Northeast. The midwest is clearly divided. I don’t believe President Bush will work to eliminate that divide: his advisors having playing only to his strengths, and ignoring those who disagree. Perhaps that will change now that he is a lame duck president. However, it also points out something that must be done by the Democratic Party: Democrats must figure out a way to change this divide.
My daughter recently did a project on LBJ; there was also an NPR report last night on the LBJ/Goldwater election. LBJ is in many ways an underestimated president. Our civil rights in this country can really be attributed to the strength of this Democratic Southerner, but so can our long stream of Republican Presidents, for LBJ’s handling of the south is what gave the south to the GOP, cemented by Nixon and Reagan. How do the Democrats get back the South? I just don’t know.
So what won the election for the GOP? The answer is simple: voter turnout. We had a record voter turnout this election, but the GOP did a better job at getting out the White Evangelical Protestants in the rural areas of battleground states. This is what turned the election to them. I heard one poll that showed we had more 18-24 voters, but the percentage was the same as in prior elections. What happened to the Democratic “Get Out The Vote” machine? The election is not won by Internet exhortations to vote, but physically getting people to the polls.
Did Bush’s message resonate with people? I don’t know; certainly not in California. However, he did win the popular vote: there’s no disputing that. So he may be more skillful than we thought, at least in how he crafts and presents his message. It obviously hit home for a lot of folks (although not me).
So, it looks like we’ve got four more years of Bush. Is there any hope? I think so. First, I don’t think Cheney will run in 2008 (and if he did, I don’t think he would win). Thus, the 2008 election is going to be wide open. We may see Hillary run then, or some new star of the Democratic Party. Perhaps McCain might run on the GOP side. But do we need to wait until 2008? No. We need to make an effort to take back the house and the senate in 2006. We can’t let the GOP control all branches of government: what makes America work is the checks and balances. We can also work to elect politicians that use their brains instead of being party rubber stamps. We can work to make our current representatives more effective. We have a representative government: we need to let them know what we think so they can represent us.
We’ll get through this. The country is resiliant, and the world won’t come to an end. But still… damn.
Update: My old PS was deleted, as I changed icons. This new icon is in honor of the divided country that our president created.
