Month: March 2008
Some Economic Thoughts
This morning, while reading electoralvote, I saw the line: “the housing crisis is an issue that really provides a bright line between the parties. The Democrats want to bail out the greedy little guys who bought homes they couldn’t afford. The Republicans want to bail out the greedy banks who loaned money to people who had no chance of ever repaying it.”
I think statements like that are misguided and pejorative. If any bailouts occur, in my opinion, they are not specifically to help out the dumb homeowners or the greedy banks. They are to prevent the collateral damage. Let me explain.
We’ve all heard about the homeowners who accepted loans they didn’t understand or couldn’t afford at the time. We all have little sympathy for those folks. We’ve all heard about the banks that are greedy, trying to get every nickle out of folks. We have no sympathy for them. We’re hearing little about the other folks affected.
Consider the homeowner who bought a house in the last 3-5 years, just to find more space for their family. They have good credit ratings, but due to rates or other economic uncertainty did a variable rate loan (either for their main mortgage, or a home equity line to renovate a room). If they have a variable rate loan, it isn’t one of the exotic option ARMs, but a more conventional variable or 5/25. Right now, they are seeing equity plummit (making future loans more difficult to obtain), and rates remain stable (not dropping) due to bank fears. They are being hurt in this crisis through no fault of their own.
Consider your local theatre, museum, city, or state. They need to issue bonds to improve roads, infrastructure, schools. They need to issue bonds to expand their facilities. Because banks are running scared about anyone being able to pay them back, they are raising interest rates on these bonds. In turn, the bond money is costing your theatre, non-profit, or city more, limiting what they can do and destroying their budget. They are being hurt in this crisis through no fault of their own (and in turn, we the patrons or taxpayers are hurt).
Consider the financial markets as a whole. When large institutions teeter or fail, others get scared. There starts to be market panic, and investors or institutions start trying to pull their money out. This reduces stock prices, which leads to more people pulling their money out. It also hurts the folks who aren’t panicing, who were depending on those funds for college educations or retirement. If the institutions fail, it hurts the employees of the organization, the folks who the failing institution holds funds, as well as creating more fear in other organizations, making the spiral downward worse.
Consider trade. Panics and failing economies reduce the value of the dollar, making imported items more expensive. This affects fuel costs to some extent (although those are calculated in dollars), but it also affects the raw goods used to make things. This means the prices rise, hurting individuals more.
We’ve seen the effect of major panics before — look at the late 1920s and early 1930s. They hurt society as a whole. At that time, regulations were put in place that prevented panic on the consumer banking side (and that side, other than incredibly high credit card rates, isn’t panicing). We haven’t had as much regulation on the commercial banking side, or on some newer aspects of the market… and thus they have the potential for free-fall.
When bailouts occur (and they have in the past), they should not be to bailout the dumb, but to prevent the collateral damage from spreading and hurting the country as a whole. Thus, I see some of the fed moves, such as providing additional loan guarantees, adjusting conforming limits, etc, as reasonable actions… and I see the purchase of Bear Stearns as a reasonable action. I see other proposals, such as notions to protect people already in foreclosure, as too late and ineffective for the economy as a whole. For the latter case, we need to provide opportunities to restructure debt so that it can be confidently repaid (not written off), or clever ways to defer debt down the line until the crisis is past and folks are more likely in better financial positions. We need confidence, not panic.
A Day of Gaming
Today was So Cal Games Day 34 at the Tujunga Elks Lodge. I got there just as it started, and after some confusion regarding a double booking (they had to move a funeral), the gaming commenced. Here’s what I played (* indicates I won):
- Ten Days in Europe*. A great warmup game.
- Darjeeling*. First play. Interesting strategy.
- Aces of Aces: Handy Rotary Edition. Good two player game, but I went down in flames.
- Dragon Delta. Played this twice. The first ended really quick. The second game was hard fought.
- Streetcar/Linie 1*.
- Category 5.
- On The Underground*.
- Ten Days in Africa.
- Attika. First play. Good game.
Some other observations. Ticket To Ride (and its variants), one of the most popular games for years, seems to be over the hill. There was barely one game played of it all day, and I couldn’t talk anyone into it. Train games seem to be passing out of the fancy, right now. So what was popular. I saw at least five games of Pandemic being played. Haven’t tried it yet. I saw one game of Agricola, but it seemed to go on forever. I saw one game of Zooloretto, which I’ve heard is a good game, but haven’t yet tried.
Best of all: I made it through a games day with no headache!
It Just Doesn’t Make Sense…
Two years ago, we got a patio swing at Lowes, very similar to this one. After two years in the sun, the cushions have died. The back ones are 18x22x2, and the seat ones are 21x22x3. The top fabric has also started to die.
I’ve been looking into replacement top fabric and replacement cushions. So far, it looks like it would just be cheaper to buy a new swing than replace the cushions. That’s just wrong.
Friday News Chum
- From the “Shmuel Wanna Cracker?” Department: It appears those wanting Tam-Tam Crackers for Passover, as well as products such as Passover Thin Tea Matzo, Yolk Free Egg Matzo, White Grape Matzo, Concord Grape Matzo and Spelt Matzo (at least from the Manischewitz Company) are out of luck. There was no production this year, due to installation of a new oven that took longer than expected. This is a big deal for those folks that love those products, but I’ve never been that much of a Tam-Tam fan. (Now I’ve got an earworm).
- From the “Betcha’ I Can Open A Cockpit Door with These!” Department: The TSA in Lubbock TX has
requesteddemanded that a female passenger remove her nipple rings in order to fly. Mandi Hamlin, 37, said she was trying to board a flight from Lubbock to Dallas on Feb. 24 when she was scanned by a Transportation Security Administration agent after passing through a larger metal detector without problems. The female TSA agent used a handheld detector that beeped when it passed in front of Hamlin’s chest. Hamlin said she told the TSA agent she was wearing nipple piercings. The agent then called over her male colleagues, one of whom said she would have to remove the jewelry. Hamlin said she could not remove them and asked whether she could instead display her pierced breasts in private to the female agent. But several other male officers told her she could not board her flight until the jewelry was out. She was taken behind a curtain and managed to remove one bar-shaped piercing but had trouble with the second, a ring. Still crying, she informed the TSA officer that she could not remove it without the help of pliers, and the officer gave a pair to her. My question: What threat did these pose? - From the “What’s in a Name? Department: Aren’t you glad your name isn’t Sarah Marshall, given the recent “You Suck, Sarah Marshall” campaign for an upcoming movie. The problem is… there are a number of folks really named Sarah Marshall. And they aren’t that happy.
- From the “Piece of Meat” Department: Some vegans in Portland are upset about a vegan strip club, where even the strippers don’t even wear (or is that don’t even take off) animal products. Basically, these vegans are upset of the notion of a vegan strip club in general — they don’t want the vegan movement tarnished with the association of selling woman’s bodies (or is that leasing). They also don’t like the PETA adds using only women to sell veganism.
News Chowder O’ The Day
- From the “Would You Like Fries With That?” Department: The inventor of the Egg McMuffin, Herb Peterson, has died. Egg McMuffins, based off the concept of Eggs Benedict, were invented at one of Herb’s Santa Barbara McDonalds in 1972. In related news, research is showing that as the waist widens, demential increases. Now, what was I saying?
- From the “And Joan Rivers Gets The Last Laugh” Department: A transgendered man, who was born a woman, is now pregnant. Supposedly, if all goes according to plan, he’ll be the first legal man to give birth. I can just imagine how that will confuse Blue Cross, and of course, Billy Crystal will turn over in the grave of Joan River’s career.
- From the “Who’s On First?” Department: Evidently, Edison wasn’t the first to record sound, Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville was. He recorded it (without expecting it to be played back) on a barrel-shaped horn attached to a stylus, which etched sound waves onto sheets of paper blackened by smoke from an oil lamp. Scientists at LBNL were able to recover the sound, which is a recording of “Au Clair de la Lune”. Those cheeky Americans, claiming credit for everything!
- From the “Be Scared, Be Very Scared” Department: Evidently, Andrew Lloyd Webber is working with Glenn Slater on “Phantom of the Opera 2”. May it follow in the (ahem) illustrious footsteps of “Annie 2: Miss Hannigan’s Revenge”, “Bring Back Birdie”, and “The Best Little Whorehouse Goes Public”. Of course, those three will likely have better music. What’s the plot, you ask? The Daily Mail previously described the sequel plot this way: “The Phantom has slipped away to New York and has set up a fairground world on Coney Island, along with Madame Giry and her daughter, Meg. He organizes a concert in Manhattan for Christine, the object of his desire. Christine travels to the U.S. with her husband Raoul and their teenage son, who happens to be a musical genius…just like the Phantom.” What did I say about dementia in older age earlier? Webber is now 60.
The Wife and Daughter are Happy
Last week, while at The House of Mouse, my daughter got her cellphone (an Audiovox CDM 8940) wet. Luckily, it didn’t get the stickers wet, so Verizon replaced it. But she was still annoyed, as the phone was too large for her to use easily, and wanted us to get her a new one. We said she had to pay for a new one.
Today, my wife went up to the Verizon store to transfer her number to the new phone Verizon sent us. Evidently, she couldn’t do that, because the battery from the old phone didn’t charge (it turns out my daughter forgot to turn on the power bar). But while there, my wife discovered that both she and I were eligible for “new every two”. Now, I’m completely happy with my phone (a Nokia 2128i). So, she decided to replace her phone (a Motorola V710) with an LG enV ($99 and change, after discount). While doing so, she took advantage of a promotion to get a 2nd phone free (using my “new every two”)… so my daughter got a Samsung Juke (more info). Well, it wasn’t free — but my daughter will willingly pay us back the sales tax.
Of course, no one ever leaves the Verizon store cheaply. My wife got a Bluetooth package (which is good — no more holding the phone while driving for her), a car charger, a case, and a 4GB Memory Card for pictures, but my 15% Circle A Ranch discount saved us some (although we probably could have gotten the accessories cheaper on the web–but I wasn’t there and she didn’t have the time).
As for me… I can’t get a new phone for a year or so, but that’s fine by me. I’m quite happy with my Nokia — one of the last made for Verizon. Yup, it’s a candy bar phone. Yup, it has no camera (which is great for work). Yup, it has no real data capability or games. But who needs all that extra stuff. It works great, lasts forever on its battery, has a good quality speakerphone…. and a flashlight (which has come in quite handy). Not many phones have a flashlight! [And worst comes to worst, I just switch to the Audiovox or the Motorola that we’re keeping as spares]