Tag: decision-2020

🗯️ Nice Doggy

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy1 Comment

Back in high school, lo those many many (many) years ago, I learned a phrase with respect to my favorite board game, “Diplomacy”: “Diplomacy is the art of saying “nice doggy” until you find a big enough stick.”

This phrase came into my head with the news of Mayor Pete dropping out of the Democratic primary field, and Joe Biden having a decisive win in the South Carolina primary. It connects with my reticence over Bernie Sanders as an eventual nominee. Let me explain.

Much as we may hate to admit it, America is not a country that loves, it is a country that hates. It started out in racism, and hasn’t yet moved past it. Oh, we Liberals like to believe that we have moved past it. We like to believe that the struggles for women starting in the early 20th century, the battle for civil rights in the 1960s, and the battles for gay rights in the 2000s have settled the issue and we have moved past the racism. But one look at Trump, and what his followers espouse on the Internet will quickly abuse one of that notion. Hate is rampant. Explicit and implicit bias is still there.

Further, we like to believe that we can wave a magic wand and it will disappear. Just by picking the right presidential candidate, we can move past all this hatred and usher in that perfect progressive society. We’ll do that by picking a perfect candidate, one that has no racist or problematic history. One wave, and (poof) society will be great again. After all, we saw how racism disappeared when we elected President Obama.

Diplomacy is the art of saying “nice doggy”, until you find a big enough stick.

Fact The First: The most important thing this election is to ensure a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House, with as large a majority as possible.

Fact The Second: The second most important thing this election is to elect a Democratic president and remove Trump, his croneys, and his sycophants. Why second? Because if we get the first, we have the means to at least remove Trump and his cronys, and hopefully get a more moderate Republican administration.

Fact The Third: The Democratic election majorities at the ballot box must be sufficiently large that the election cannot be contested; large enough that even if they throw out some number of votes, the election still gives a Democratic result.

The corollary of this third fact is that we must therefore convince the moderate Republicans (those who are fed up with Trump) to vote for Democratic candidates, in sufficient numbers to get that majority. That means we must run candidates that are not only palatable to the Democratic base, but to those in the middle. We want a repeat of the 1964 election, in terms of landslide against Trump and his policies.

Combine these facts, and you’ll find yourself saying “Nice Doggy”. We are not going to elect Bernie and magically get his splendiferous agenda. We’re not going to elect Liz and get all those plans. We’re going to get a compromise shaped by the House and the Senate, one that will likely be closer to the moderate policies — because it must be able to pass the House and Senate.

Saying “Nice Doggy” has shaped the field. It is why all the top candidates now are old white men — because old white men aren’t as scary. Well, Bernie might be in the fright mask, but I digress. It is why the Democrats might be coalescing around a moderate, even if Bernie ends up with the most delegates (but not a majority). Remember the implication of that: most delegates, but not a majority, means the majority of the party WANTS SOMEONE ELSE. They just couldn’t unify on precisely who — they just know who they don’t want it to be.

Saying “Nice Doggy” for the election also means the stick is coming. When the election is over, and an acceptable ticket is elected (Biden/Abrams, Sanders/Harris, etc.), then the work can really begin — the work of addressing the structural racism and classism in this country. But we can’t do anything if Trump and McConnell remain in charge. Hell, we can’t do anything even if Sanders is elected, and McConnell remains in charge.

Thus endeth this rant. And I didn’t even mention Amy.

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🗳️ March 2020 Primary Election Ballot Analysis (V): Summary

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

I’m now registered as a permanent vote-by-mail voter, and I recently received my ballot for the March California Primary. And that means it is time to start doing the detailed ballot analysis. This is where, for most contests, I examine each candidate and share my conclusions, and invite you to convince me to vote for the other jerk.

Because this is a long ballot, I’m splitting it into a few chunks:

  1. The Presidential Primary
  2. The Congressional, State and Local Offices
  3. Judicial Offices
  4. Ballot Measures
  5. Summary (this post)

This part provides a summary of my ballot analysis results. Please read the full explanation of why I chose who I chose in the links above.

 

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🗳️ March 2020 Primary Election Ballot Analysis (IV): Measure for Measure

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

I’m now registered as a permanent vote-by-mail voter, and I recently received my ballot for the March California Primary. And that means it is time to start doing the detailed ballot analysis. This is where, for most contests, I examine each candidate and share my conclusions, and invite you to convince me to vote for the other jerk.

Because this is a long ballot, I’m splitting it into a few chunks:

  1. The Presidential Primary
  2. The Congressional, State and Local Offices
  3. Judicial Offices
  4. Ballot Measures (this post)
  5. Summary

This part covers the following Ballot Measures: State Measure 13 ❦ Los Angeles County Measure R

Read More …

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🗳️ March 2020 Primary Election Ballot Analysis (III): Judicial Offices

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

I’m now registered as a permanent vote-by-mail voter, and I recently received my ballot for the March California Primary. And that means it is time to start doing the detailed ballot analysis. This is where, for most contests, I examine each candidate and share my conclusions, and invite you to convince me to vote for the other jerk.

Because this is a long ballot, I’m splitting it into a few chunks:

  1. The Presidential Primary
  2. The Congressional, State and Local Offices
  3. Judicial Offices (this post)
  4. Ballot Measures
  5. Summary

This part covers the Judicial Offices, all Judges of the Superior Court: 17 ❦ 42 ❦ 72 ❦ 76 ❦ 80 ❦ 97 ❦ 129 ❦ 131 ❦ 141 ❦ 145 ❦ 150 ❦ 162. California’s systems for judges is — in some ways — a strange one. I’m sure it is shaped by past abuses, especially by politicians appointing unqualified judges. How it works is that lawyers wanting to move into the judicial system (and further their careers in a non-corporate law world) must start by running for the Superior Court, from which they can be appointed to the Court of Appeals or California Supreme Court. But winning a seat on the bench is more than a question of just your skills as a jurist. I don’t know whether each office handles different types of cases — that isn’t make clear on the ballot. But each election cycle, a certain offices come up for election. Up for election in 2020 are 188 Los Angeles Superior Court judges. Those who opt not to run in the March 3 primary and do not retire before their terms are up and in time for the governor to appoint a successor, will create open seats. The lawyer/potential candidate has to (a) indicate all the seats they might want to run for, and then (b) pick one of those to actually run in — hopefully the one with no or weak competition. Sometimes you luck out, and no one runs against you. Other times, you end up against equally strong people, and are faced with a public that often only picks people randomly or based on your job title. Lucky for you, I try to sort this all out.

ETA: Here’s a clarification from a friend of mine familiar with the area: A couple points of clarification. First, judges can either be appointed by the governor (more common method) or elected (less common method). Lawyers can theoretically be appointed directly to the Court of Appeal or to the Supreme Court without serving as superior court judges first, but it’s rare. (Justices Groban and Kruger are examples of CSC justices who were never superior court judges.) Second, judges who fill a seat either through appointment or election are not guaranteed a particular assignment. Judges do rotate their assignments so they could be in civil for a few years and then move to juvenile or probate or criminal or whatever. It depends on the needs of the court based on workload. By sleuthing around on the court’s website you can usually figure out what the current judge’s assignment is. Third, if a judge’s term is up, the judge elects to run for re-election, and the judge is unopposed, then that judge does not appear on the ballot and they are automatically re-elected. But if the judge is opposed, then you’ll see their names and the names of their challengers on the ballot.

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🗳️ March 2020 Primary Election Ballot Analysis (II): State and Local Offices

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

I’m now registered as a permanent vote-by-mail voter, and I recently received my ballot for the March California Primary. And that means it is time to start doing the detailed ballot analysis. This is where, for most contests, I examine each candidate and share my conclusions, and invite you to convince me to vote for the other jerk.

Because this is a long ballot, I’m splitting it into a few chunks:

  1. The Presidential Primary
  2. The Congressional, State and Local Offices (this post)
  3. Judicial Offices
  4. Ballot Measures
  5. Summary

This part covers the Congressional, State and Local Offices:

  • Federal: US Representative, 30th District
  • State: State Senate, 27th District ❦ State Assembly, 45th District
  • LA County: District Attorney
  • LA City: Council District 12
  • LAUSD: Board of Education, District 3
  • Other: Democratic Central Committee, District 45

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🗳️ March 2020 Primary Election Ballot Analysis (I): Introduction & Presidential Primary

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

I’m now registered as a permanent vote-by-mail voter, and I recently received my ballot for the March California Primary. And that means it is time to start doing the detailed ballot analysis. This is where, for most contests, I examine each candidate and share my conclusions, and invite you to convince me to vote for the other jerk.

In Los Angeles County, this election is bringing big changes. I predict chaos. Los Angeles is getting rid of the old “Inkavote” system, where you would go to your local precinct, and use an inked stamp to mark a ballot, which you then took to a precinct worker to confirm you didn’t mismark (i.e, vote twice for an office, not ink dark enough), and then you put your ballot in the collection box.

Under the new system,  everything — and I mean everything — changes. Gone are your local polling places. Instead, there are regional voting centers — fewer in number, but open for between eleven to four days before the election. You don’t have to go locally — you can go to any center in the county and they will verify your registration and pull up and print your ballot for you to vote.

Here’s a description of the process, somewhat edited, from LAist: “First, a county poll worker looks up your information on new digital “e- pollbook.” The election worker confirms your address and prints a custom ballot specific to your precinct. You then walk that ballot over to a machine, insert it into a slot. The tablet reads your ballot, and presents you the selections to vote on a touchscreen. It then lets you review your selections at the end, and prints it out for you again. After looking things over and confirming they are correct, you insert the ballot back into the machine and you’re done.

The project is called VSAP, There are even videos explaining things. What could possibly go wrong?

Oh, lots. They’ve done tests, but small scale. I can just imagine the lines when the electronic verification of registration gets backed up or goes down (here’s your first point of failure, with no backups). There are printers, and tested demonstrated problems with getting ballots printed. Then there are the ballot readers — and remember anything with mechanical collection can break down. That’s not to mention all the behind the scene risks related to the software, counting, collection, and such.

There’s also the user interface: it takes multiple screens to see all the candidates, and on a touch screen, people are more used to swiping as opposed to a “more” button. Some security experts are concerned about independent test results showing vulnerabilities, and there is a vocal contingent of election advocates who believe the only way to safeguard voting is by requiring hand-marked paper ballots whenever possible. Luckily, as the County Registrar notes, “It is still a voter-marked paper ballot. This device is not retaining your voter choices, it’s not tabulating your votes.  It’s just allowing you to mark the ballot in a way that’s clear. For tabulation, the printed ballot is the official ballot.”

Note that, as part of the conditions for certifying the system, everyone has the option of hand-marking a paper ballot.

As for me, I’ll be voting early. Partially, that’s because I’ll be out of town (in Madison WI) on election day. But I also want to try this system when it is less crowded. That’s one reason I’ve been pushing to get this analysis done.

Because this is a long ballot, I’m splitting it into a few chunks:

  1. The Presidential Primary (this post)
  2. The Congressional, State and Local Offices
  3. Judicial Offices
  4. Ballot Measures
  5. Summary

This part covers the Presidential Primary.

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🗯️ Four Things to Remember … and a little bit more

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

Four important things to remember this election season:

  1. You will not find a candidate that 100% matches your political positions. This means you must compromise on the candidate that comes closest, remembering that…
  2. Any broad policy initiatives must be approved by Congress, and will assuredly change. As we keep reminding those who support Trump: the President is not King. There is only a limited amount that can be done through Executive Order. Most policy needs to come through Congress, and all appropriations need to come through Congress — and bold broad initiatives, such as healthcare, require funding. This means that whatever position the candidate takes will not make it into law in exactly that form. Don’t think you’ll get “Medicare for All”, for example, as that likely won’t make it through Congress.
  3. ANY of the Democratic candidates is better than Trump. This is a key point to remember. Any of the Democrats will respect the role of Congress and the role of the diplomatic and intelligence communities. None will attempt to be autocratic like Trump. So you don’t like Bloomberg because he’s a rich oligarch and buying the election? Even at that, he’s better than Trump. Don’t like Bernie because he’s an angry old white man? Still better than Trump. Don’t like Pete because of his corporate connections and inexperience? Still better than Trump. Don’t like Biden because of his gaffes and history? Still better than Trump. Always remember: ANY of these candidates is better than Trump.
  4. Not voting is a vote for Trump. Thinking of sitting out the election because you don’t like the Democratic candidate that was nominated? Think again. Not voting gives more power to the people voting for Trump. So unless you think having Trump in office is better than than whomever is the Democratic nominee is, make sure you get out to vote.

and here’s the little bit more:

  1. A Democratic Senate Solves Many Problems. It is vital we take back the Senate, so if you live in a state where a Republican senate seat is on the ballot, vote for the Democratic candidate. If we have over 51% in the Senate, we can do another impeachment trial — but this time with witnesses. If we can get near 2/3rds, there is the possibility of removing Trump from office even if he is reelected. Having a Democratic senate will also allow House initiated legislation to finally reach the President’s desk (winning the White House means nothing if legislation gets blocked in the Senate), and provides a real check on the power of appointment — especially of judges.
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🗳 Some Thoughts after the Second Democratic Debate

Posted onAuthorcahwyguy

Some post debate thoughts. The bottom and more important factor in all of this is that any of the Democratic candidates is a better choice than Trump. So given that, it boils down to the question of who can bring the fight to him, and who is closest to my positions. The former is much more important than the latter.

Favorites

Booker. I really liked how he presented himself, and how he built his arguments and his energy. In general, I liked his positions. I think he could be a great contrast to Trump, and could energize the minority voters and the youth.

Harris. She was a bit slower to get started, but she brought good energy and could really take apart Trump in a debate. Plus her very nature will infuriate him — which is a good thing, because he makes mistakes when infuriated. She has some troubling criminal justice positions which could hurt her in some sectors, but is it enough to make those people stay at home or vote Trump. She needs to make the case that whatever her flaws, she’s better than Trump.

Warren. If you like Bernie, go for Warren. She brings a strong case and energy to battle Trump, and knows her stuff. She also gets under her skin, and the ONLY thing he has against her is the whole Native American kerfluffle — which is really minor in the scheme of things, and he’s misrepresented himself much worse. My only concern with her is her age.

Others of Interest

Buttigieg … Mayor Pete. I like his ideas and his energy, but he may come across as too young. He could make a great VP candidate.

Klobuchar … Amy. I like her ideas and midwestern values, which could speak to a lot of voters. But she often too a moment to get started, and she’s getting a bit one note on the claim of having never lost anything.

O’Rourke. He came off better in the second debate, but I don’t think he would be able to out maneuver Trump, even with his ideas.

Castro. Has some good ideas, but he hasn’t struck me yet has having the fire to beat Trump.

Has Beens

Biden. Joe, joe, joe. Much as he has the momentum, I think he’s too old. He’s befuddled in his answers, and that’s bad. More important, he has a long long history that can and will be used against him, and he simply refuses to accept it. What he needs to do is admit his past errors, indicate that he’s learned more and wised up, and has changed his mind. But he simply does not have the ability to do this, and tries to dance around the issue — and that dancing will do him in. Trump would love to have Biden, because then he can run against Obama.

Bernie. Bernie worries me in so many ways. He comes across as very one-note. He does not make clear that he will back and strongly work for the eventual nominee. His people give the indication that it is Bernie or bust, and that will lose us the election. He also has problematic past position. Trump would love it to be Bernie because that will energize his base and his turnout. That’s a bad thing.

Also Rans

Jay Inslee. Make him Secretary of Energy.

Gabbard. Somethings up with her. I’m reading things about connections to the Saudis and the Russians, and I’m getting the gut feeling that her campaign is being used to sabotage campaigns of candidates that that Russians are really scared of. It makes me want to support Harris even more, if the Russians are scared of her.

Gillibrand. She kept coming across as a deer in the headlights, waiting for the speech to load from the external drive.

Delany. Every time I see him, I think of John Fiedler, the bald guy on the Bob Newhart show.

Yang. Very one note with his guaranteed income.

None of the rest strike me as having the necessary fire to beat Trump — they are much more of the same we have every year.

 

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